Value Zone
You can find my notes and findings from Week 6 of 2026.
Let’s start with Bitcoin risk metric. As you know, this metric takes into account short term holder cost basis, MVRV, long term & short term SOPR and mayer multiple. Currently it’s at ~3 and seems like it will stay low for a couple months (considering macro & technical as well).
Main question of last week was “why don’t we accumulate?” and I used this chart as reference, mentioning that my plan was to accumulate BTC again when it drops below $75k and continue to do so until it finds the bottom. You never know where the bottom is, so it’s better to slowly accumulate.
So, that’s what I did. It was faster than my expectation, but my orders got filled with the average price of $67k. My updated portfolio is 45% BTC 18% ETH 35% USD 2% SOL. Considering that 200D moving average at $102k, true mean price at $80k, realized price at $55k it was a good bargain.
Bitcoin risk metric: 3/100.
Ethereum risk metric: 23/100.
Solana risk metric: 12/100.
What Others Say?
Michael Howell: GLI ( Global Liquidity Index) has topped and his expectation is drawdown in the markets. New liquidity is expected from FED to be used in real economy (not financial markets), therefore he is negative for stock market and crypto.
Bob Loukas: He emphasizes the 4 year cycle frequently and expecting a bottom in mid to late 2026. He’s not in a hurry to buy BTC, and a short-term reversal and then a lower bottom is his main play.
Lyn Alden: She emphasizes the debasement trade for a long time and telling that the easy part is over. Asset picking is really important from now on. Her recent content underlines gradual money printing. During her last interview with David Lin, BTC was at $78k and she mentioned that BTC should outperform other assets with 1-2 year time horizon.
Ben Cowen: Not a big fan of his engagement farming on X, but still I value his opinions on the market. His expectation is quite similar to Bob Loukas.
I will add more people here every week and create a weekly positive/negative thesis for Bitcoin. If you think of any names that are worth following, please let me know.
Final Thoughts
I wanted to note down and share my thoughts with you. I will create more structured content over time (AI, prediction markets, macro and similar). Let’s see how this goes in the upcoming weeks.
Thanks for reading,
Samet